The American supermarket offers fresh produce year-round, largely due to imports. Currently, nearly 60% of fresh fruit and over a third of fresh vegetables in the U.S. are imported, mostly from Mexico. Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on these imports, if enacted, would significantly impact grocery prices. While the tariffs were temporarily suspended, if implemented, Yale’s Budget Lab estimates they will increase fresh produce prices by an average of 2.9%. While this figure may seem small, it represents two years’ worth of food inflation at once, disproportionately affecting staple items like tomatoes and green beans.  

Public-health experts warn that rising costs will push Americans toward worsening dietary habits. Mariana Chilton, a Drexel University professor, argues that higher produce prices will immediately lead to lower fruit and vegetable consumption, particularly among low-income families who already struggle to afford fresh produce. In her research, mothers frequently expressed a desire to buy fresh fruit for their children but found it financially out of reach. Higher costs will only exacerbate this issue.  

While the tariffs are intended to boost domestic agriculture, experts argue that shifting production to the U.S. is unrealistic without major systemic changes. Expanding fruit and vegetable farming would require more land, labor, infrastructure, and policy shifts—none of which are quick fixes.  On the other hand, the impact on processed foods will be minimal. Packaged products, such as frozen pizza, contain only trace amounts of produce, making them less affected by tariff-related price hikes. Consequently, healthier foods will become more expensive, while junk food remains relatively affordable.  

While some consumers may adjust by purchasing frozen or canned alternatives, for many, the increased cost of fresh produce will reinforce unhealthy eating patterns. If the administration truly aims to “Make America Healthy Again,” making fruits and vegetables more expensive is a counterproductive strategy.